2019 Manufacturing and Hiring Outlook
A booming US economy, a sharp economic slowdown, or something in between? Goldman Sachs has warned that US GDP could slow to under 2 percent next year. Meanwhile, the ISM’s PMI index for November was 59.3, a very strong number, with Plastics & Rubber the number 2 industry of the 18 they track.
Perhaps at no time in history has it been harder to read the tea leaves for next year. Consider still record low unemployment levels, but with the specter of tightening monetary policy, trade tariffs, and political uncertainty. With all those factors considered, and many others, The Conference Board’s consensus is for growth to slow a bit in the 2nd half of 2019 but overall, they see real GDP growth ending up at 2.9% for 2018 and 3.0% for 2019. Those are very solid numbers to say the least.
Given that US companies in general are already behind the hiring curve, there will certainly be no rest for hiring managers. Also, don’t forget we’re still losing over 300,000 baby boomers each month to retirement. 2019 will remain a candidate-driven market, with scarce talent driving the process.